Tight market persists as DC Metro pending sales hit highest September level this decade

Washington D.C. Metro median price of $405,000 at highest September level in ten years; pending sales at September high; inventories decline for 17^th consecutive month although new listings increase to highest September levels of the decade.

OVERVIEW

• The Washington D.C. Metro median sales price of $405,000 was up 1.3% or $5,100 compared to last year but was down 5.8% or $25,000 compared to last month.  This is the highest September price of the decade.
• Sales volume across the DC Metro area was nearly $2 billion, down 2.2% from last year.
• Closed sales of 4,040 were down 3.4% compared to last year and down 20.4% compared to last month.
• New contract activity of 4,809 was up 2.5% compared to last year.
• New listings of 6,972 were up 2.8% compared to last year and were up 18.3% from last month.
• Active listings of 10,903 are down 1.8% compared to last year but up 10.6% compared to last month. This is the 17th consecutive month of declines in year-over-year inventory levels.
• The average percent of original list price received at sale in September was 97.6%.
• The median days-on-market for September 2017 was 20 days, four days lower than last year.

• September’s regional median sales price of $405,000 was an increase of $5,100 (+1.3%) compared to last year, but was down $25,000 (-5.8%) compared to last month.  This is the 12^th consecutive month of year-over-year price increases and was the highest September level of the last 10 years.
• Compared to last year, single-family detached home prices increased 5.3% to $499,000 and townhome prices were nearly flat at $400,000.  Condo prices decreased 5.2% to $283,750. 
• September prices are above the 5-year average of $396,380 and the 10-year average of $366,990.
• The overall regional price of $405,000 is 22.7% above the $330,000 seen most recently in September 2010.
• Falls Church City remains the most expensive location in the region, with a median sales price of $630,000, up 5.9% from last year. 
• Prince George’s County is still the most affordable area in the region, with a median sales price of $280,000, a 7.7% increase over last year. 
• For the year to date, the regional median sales price is up 3.4% to $429,000.

• Closed sales of 4,040 were down 3.4% from last year and down 20.4% from last month.
• Compared to last year, single-family detached sales were down 1.7% to 1,856.  Condo sales were down 3.4% to 1,122 and townhome sales were down 6.1% to 1,062.
• Sales remain above both the 5-year average of 3,912 and the 10-year average of 3,688.
• September’s closed sales were 29.9% above the market low of 3,110 seen in September 2011.
• Sales activity across the region was mixed, with the largest gain in Fairfax City (+18.8% or 6 sales) and the largest decline in Washington D.C. ( -13.7% or 97 sales). 
• Across the region, year-to-date sales are up 4.0% to 42,698, and all jurisdictions show gains in sales, with the largest percentage gain in Fairfax City (+33.7% or 86 sales) and the smallest in Montgomery County (+0.1% or 6 sales).   

• New pending sales of 4,809 were up 2.5% compared to last year, but were down 3.1% compared to last month.  This marked the highest level of September pending sales of the decade.
• Condo pending sales increased 4.2% to 1,325, townhome pending sales increased 3.4% to 1,295, and pending sales of single-family detached homes were up 1.0% to 2,188.
• Pending sales remain above the 5-year average of 4,559 and the 10-year average of 4,166.
• September’s new pending sales were 50.6% more than the September 2008 low of 3,194 and were 0.6% below the previous September high of 4,781 seen in 2015.
• Pending sales activity across the region was mixed, with the largest percentage increase in Fairfax City, which was up from 17 new pending sales to 31 (+82.4%).  The largest percentage decrease was in Falls Church City, where they dropped from 12 to 10 (-16.7%).

• September’s 6,972 new listings were up 2.8% from last year and up 18.3% from last month.  This is the highest level of new September listings in a decade.     
• Compared to last year, new condo listings were up 6.8% to 2,009 and new townhome listings were up 6.0% to 1,729.  New single-family listings were down 1.0% to 3,232.
• New listings are above both the 5-year average of 6,653 and the 10-year average of 6,325. 
• September new listings are 36.1% above the 10-year low of 5,124 seen in September 2012, and are 1.3% above the previous September 2015 high of 6,882.
• Across the region, Falls Church City saw the largest percentage decrease in new listings (-28.6% to 15).  The largest percentage increase was in Fairfax City (+37.2% to 59 listings).
• For the year to date, new listings across the entire DC Metro of 61,490 are up 2.2% compared to last year.

• There were 10,903 active listings at the end of September, down 1.8% compared to last year but up 10.6% compared to last month.  Inventory levels have declined for 17 consecutive months.
• While townhome inventories rose 1.1% to 2,112, condo inventories were down 2.3% to 2,833 and single-family detached inventories were down 2.6% to 5,949.
• Inventories are below both the 5-year average of 11,293, and the 10-year average of 13,709.
• September inventory levels exceed the 2013 low of 9,340 by 16.7%, but are down 54.6% from the peak of 24,021 seen in September 2008.
• Across the region, inventory levels showed the largest gain in Washington D.C., increasing 9.8% to 1,553.  The largest percentage decline was in Falls Church City (-22.2% to 28).

• The regional average sales price to original listing price ratio (SP to OLP ratio) for September was 97.6%, up from last year’s 97.5%, but down from last month’s 97.8%. 
• Townhomes have the highest September SP to OLP ratio of 98.6%.  Condos have a SP to OLP ratio of 97.4% and single-family detached homes have a SP to OLP ratio of 97.1%.
• September’s SP to OLP ratio exceeds the 5-year average of 97.5% and the 10-year average of 95.8%.
• Over the last decade, the lowest September average sales price to original listing price ratio was in 2008, when it was 92.8%, and the decade’s high was September 2013, when it was 98.0%.
• Arlington County had the highest regional SP to OLP ratio of 98.1%, up from last year’s 97.0%.
• This month, the largest gap between original listing price and sales price was in Falls Church City, where the average ratio was 96.0%, up from last year’s 95.7%.
• For the year-to-date, the regional SP to OLP ratio is 98.2%, higher than last year’s 97.6%.

• The median days-on-market (DOM) in September was 20 days, down from 24 days last year but up two days from last month.
• Townhomes have a median DOM of 14, while condos have a median DOM of 20, and single-family detached homes have a median DOM of 24.
• September’s median DOM was three days below the 5-year average of 23 days and 12 days below the 10-year average of 32 days.
• This month’s median DOM of 20 is the second-lowest September level in a decade (the lowest was 17 days in 2013).  The highest September median DOM of the last 10 years was 68 days in 2008.
• The highest median DOM in the region in September was in Montgomery County where it was 24 days, down from 28 days last year. 
• Fairfax City has the lowest median DOM of 7 days, down from 19 days last year.
• For the year-to-date, the overall regional median DOM is 15 days, down from 20 days last year.

By Corey Hart for RBIntel